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Audience versus Ad Prices in Network TV

A couple of article last week about network television caught my eye. One article in The Economist looked at how the ratings have declined during the past ten years for the ‘big four’ networks. Most spectacular has been NBC’s drop; their ratings are about half they were 10 years ago. CBS and ABC have fared almost as bad, while Fox has lost about only one point overall.

While the ratings seem to be dropping, there is still money being made. Coincidentally this week I also saw an article in Fortune Magazine about ‘TV’s Biggest Moneymakers,’ detailing the top 10 revenue generators on broadcast network television. The results are as follows.

TV Ad Costs.001

What I noticed the most was how audience size did not completely correlate to revenues. I figured that this was due to two factors: 1) advertisers were not interested in the general audience, and targeting segments like the 18-49 demographic (this explains the revenue powerhouse American Idol) and 2) certain shows with relatively lower audiences, like Private Practice and Heroes, were sold on expectations of higher ratings before their current season began.

Given The Economist article, I was also interested in looking at how network TV ad costs have changed. I found the historical prices for network TV primetime ad spots at the Television Bureau of Advertising’s website, and I also found a chart of Advertising Age’s reports of 30-second spot costs for network TV’s top 10 shows, between 2000 and 2008, at this useful website. Consolidating the two gives us the following picture.

TV Ad Costs.002

Just as The Economist article highlights, ratings have gone down as a whole, and so have primetime ad costs, particularly during the past four years. However, the decrease in ad costs hasn’t been enough to compensate for the decreasing audience, resulting in higher overall CPM’s. It would be interesting to see how the networks will handle the situation with their clients during the  upcoming upfront.

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