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TV ain’t dead yet

Although I really love my new job in online advertising sales, as I previously worked for 12 years in TV, I am still irked when I hear media pundits declare the inevitability of television’s demise. It was thus with some sense of reassurance and satisfaction that I recently read the positive report by The Economist of the TV industry “Changing The Channel,” but perhaps it would be more aptly titled “TV Ain’t Dead Yet.” Among the report’s key points:

  • Increased and better programming options: Clearly television is no longer the domain of the “big three” networks. A myriad of networks now proliferate resulting in greater programming options which satisfies more diverse interests, but also creates increased competition which improves overall quality.
  • Increased viewing options: Besides having more things to watch consumers now have more options on how or when to view it. First of all there are more sets now in households. Secondly there are other platforms for viewing (iPods, Hulu, etc.). And finally there are also adjunct devices which allow consumers to record programming or view it on demand.
  • Increased consumption: Programming and viewing improvemetns have yielded greater total consumption. On average a U.S. viewer watches over five hours of television per day, about a third more than what a person normally estimates.

The report also busts five myths surrounding the television industry:

  • Myth #1, Death by DVR: Although DVRs have penetrated 34% of the market, time-shifted viewing is not threatening television’s advertising business model. Viewers will almost always watch live programming before considering recorded programs. This is backed up in a recent study by Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business which finds that 95% of people watch television live.
  • Myth #2, Commercial Aversion: Even without DVRs it is believed that people ignore or evade commercial breaks, but a recent study by the Council on Research Excellence indicates that “TV advertising and programming promotions reach 85% of adults daily.”
  • Myth #3, Online Viewing Cannibalization: It is also believed that online viewing is hurting television ratings but the average YouTube viewer watches only 15 minutes of video per day on the site, compared with five hours in front of an actual television set. Online video certainly is an interesting, high-growth market, but it’s not substituting television.
  • Myth #4, Shift to Mobile TV: A great deal of hype has also been given to to mobile TV, although it has yet to take hold in any country other than Japan or South Korea. And even in those markets it has yet to find a viable business model since mobile TV is free and advertising CPMs run only 10% of the TV market rate.

As much as I enjoyed the report I was disappointed that it barely touched on the potential of targeted television advertising, perhaps since it’s a technology which has taken so long to be applied in the industry. Combing the mass audience of television with the audience targeting capabilities of the internet would immortalize television, not that it’s going away anytime soon.

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